After recording more than five strikeouts just once in August, I believe Dylan Cease is in a strong spot to reverse the trend. In those recent starts, he still possesses a swinging strike rate better than 15%, thanks to a slider with a 45% whiff rate. That pitch should be the key, as it grades out at 132 Stuff+, making it one of the very best sliders in MLB and the Rays only have one hitter in the lineup with a whiff rate under 39% on the slider. Currently at 197 strikeouts on the year, I'll be rooting for Cease to clear 200 K's with ease as I also have some stock in a 9th and 10th strikeout.

I just bet this one at BetRivers so all Kambi books still have 17.5 out there. This number is likely going to settle in at 16.5 and I would not be surprised if we're getting plus odds to the over when things are said and done. Ryan Pepiot is certainly talented and we love his strikeout upside in most matchups but this one shouldn't be that easy. To his credit, he's pitched into the 6th inning in all three starts since returning from the IL, going over this line in two of his last three, but we're getting a number at 17.5 that's likely where his ceiling will be today, so I'll take the under while we can. At 16.5 I'll pass on fading him...

Ryan Pepiot has been held under this line in 11/20 starts this season, however he has only pitched into the 7th inning once. Pepiot will face a stiff test in the Padres who rank top 5 in nearly every offensive metric since August 1st. Pepiot has been pitching above his head and I like the Padres chances of finding success against Pepiot who has only thrown 100+ pitches on once this season.