Let's be clear that Cincinnati's Hunter Greene is very capable of going more than six innings but actually has been a bit worse at home this season and has meh career numbers vs. the Cardinals. Greene has thrown at least 100 pitches in four straight outings, and the Reds' bullpen is well-rested so why bother letting him go more than six if at a fairly high pitch count and, you know, not in the midst of a no-hitter? The SL Model has Greene at 5.6 innings. There's always the possibility of wildness or an injury.

The Reds have won four of Hunter Greene's last five starts and he sports a 1.03 ERA since the start of July. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are pretty pedestrian right now. They've gone 12-17 since July 8 and now have a negative-36 run differential on the road this season. The Reds aren't exactly an inspiring bunch, but they've won five of eight and have the much better pitcher here. They'll win.

Erik Fedde going from the hapless Pale Hose to the Cards in the middle of pennant race not going well, allowing 6 ER in 2 starts (10 IP). Cards have allowed 67 runs their last 11 runs while held to 4 runs or less in 8 of them. Hunter Greene has been awesome with a 1.03 ERA in his last 7 starts. Reds have won 4 of his last 5 starts, by scores of 8-1, 4-1, 6-4, and 10-4 with a 2-1 loss tucked in. Season series tied between these teams, but Reds have lead in RD. Cards playing lethargic ball and fading (4-8 in last 12).