Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 6.69 and a batting average against .349 at Chase Field. He primarily relies on his Four-Seam fastball (50%) and Cutter (22%). This poses a tough matchup against Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .330 batting average and a .466 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs. Regarding cutters, Vlady is hitting .304 with a high .739 slugging percentage. For the season, he has a hard-hit rate of 56.3% (98th percentile), an average exit velocity of 94.2 MPH (98th percentile), and an xSlugg of .522. Arizona’s bullpen has allowed the third-most hits and home runs. Additionally, Chase Field has surrendered the seventh-most hits, sixth-most doubles, and the most triples this season.

I almost need a reason not to go Over 14.5 outs and don't have one here. Jays rookie Yariel Rodriguez has looked like a different pitcher in two starts this month with B2B quality starts (0.72 ERA) and we don't need close to that. Rodriguez is a part of the team's future, so the Jays want to see what he has and I only expect a quick hook if blasted. And, again, managers want their guys to qualify for a win if possible. Rodriguez comes off the first W of his career.