Even though the Reds looked horrible at home over the weekend in being swept by Detroit, this is still about 15-20 cents low in my opinion considering how bad the Rockies are on the road at 12-31 and with Ryan Feltner (1-7, 5.60 ERA) on the mound here. Cincy's Andrew Abbott has allowed more than three earned just twice all season and threw a quality start at Coors Field earlier this year in a win.

Elly De La Cruz has had a tough time in the last five games, accumulating fewer than two total bases. I am optimistic about this matchup because De La Cruz has a 44.7% hard-hit rate (in the 71st percentile) and an average exit velocity of 91.5 MPH (in the 84th percentile). Left-handed batters have been hitting .313 with a .526 slugging percentage against Ryan Feltner this season. De La Cruz, a switch-hitter, is in a favorable position late in games because the Rockies bullpen is ranked 27th in ERA at 4.29. The air density tonight is 55 at Great American Ballpark, which suggests the ball will travel 8% farther than usual.