San Francisco took game one of the series. The Giants have been hitting lefties well over the last month, .294 average with a .847 OPS. However, they now face Chris Sale who has yet to lose a game at home while owning a 2.86 ERA. Sale has only allowed more than two runs twice in his eight home starts. While the pitching edge goes to Atlanta, the Braves have really struggled on offense, as they’re hitting .206 with a .630 OPS over their last seven days.

This year the Braves have not avoided striking out like they did last year and losing Ronald Acuna hasn't helped. There is some risk that Jordan Hicks gets blown up here, pitching in Atlanta against an offense that still has some fire power, but he can also grab five strikeouts easily. Hicks is routinely underrated by the sportsbooks (in my opinion) and at +105 on MGM, I'll back him for a 5th punch out. The splitter and sweeper have solid strikeout metrics and all three of his main pitches rank inside the top 20 for Stuff+ ratings among MLB starters. The splitter grades out as the best among any qualified starter, and this lineup has struggled to not strike out against that pitch.