Not sure why this has dipped under -200 with Seth Lugo pitching for Kansas City. He's already the first Royal to win 10 games before the All-Star break since 2017 and ranks fifth in the majors with a 2.42 ERA. Lugo has completed at least 6.0 innings and allowed 2 runs or fewer in 11 of 16 starts. Lugo has limited opponents to a .194 average with runners in scoring position (14-for-72), which is sixth-best in MLB. The bottom four of that Miami lineup all look like automatic outs tonight.

KC beats up on bad teams at home, especially with guys like Seth Lugo on the mound. Royals 11-5 in his starts with 10 wins by 2 runs or more. Generally gets strong run support. KC very solid 23-17 ATS at home, have 2nd best home OPS in MLB and get to face a starter who was forced back to majors by slew of SP injuries to the Fish rotation. Yonny Chirinos got no swing and miss in AAA (47 Ks in 66 IP) and while he was solid in his first start vs STL, he nibbles and puts too many on. KC is 30-16 vs sub .500 teams with plenty of beatdowns along the way. Don't like a dome team in KC heat, either

The winds will be blowing out in Kansas City, but the Royals' Maikel Garcia is batting just .236 this season and .145 in June with a single multi-hit game this month. He's 1-for-5 career off Miami starter Yonny Chirinos.