The Reds have scored six runs in their past three games and won't have leadoff hitter TJ Friedl tonight after he tweaked his hammy in Monday's 4-1 loss. Pirates starter Bailey Falter is having a solid year with a 3.86 ERA and has gotten two runs or fewer of run support when he has been in the game in nine of his last 11 starts. Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo is holding opponents to a .216/.293/.321 slashline and has three straight quality starts. No Oneil Cruz for the Bucs. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have each hit the Under in eight of their past 10 overall. Winds are blowing in slightly at PNC Park. Just one of our books has 8.5; I wouldn't play at 8.

Nick Lodolo is having a fine season, however his K Rate is down compared to his first two seasons. This can largely be attributed to running cold on Ks and as a result we're getting a fairly steep discount on a line that would be 7.5 in previous seasons, especially considering the opponent is Pittsburgh. The Pirates possess a top 5 K Rate both in the month of June and over the duration of the season making this a really strong matchup.