The scheduled has ramped up and correspondingly this has not been the easiest week for the Royals, who narrowly averted a four-game sweep by the Yankees before losing the opener of this weekend set last night. Now KC has to deal with the mystifying Dodger starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who can be extra tough for teams that haven't seen him yet, as the case with the hot Yanks last Friday, managing just 2 hits and 0 runs in seven innings of a game LA won in extra innings. Tough for the Royals to keep pace tonight, especially if Seth Lugo is losing some of his magic on the mound, as his 7.62 ERA across his last two starts is suggesting. Play Dodgers on Run Line

Seth Lugo is a guy I think is closer to that near four xERA rather than the current ERA, which is closer to two. As we know, the Dodgers feature one of the best lineups in baseball, especially at the top, and Freeman and Betts both have solid career numbers against Lugo in smaller sample sizes. Ohtani interests me on the over 2.5 HRRBI at plus odds, as Lugo's numbers vs lefties has regressed a fair amount over his last few starts. It will need to start up top if the Dodgers bounce Lugo early, and at this price it's worth a half unit shot in my opinion.

Seth Lugo has had a fantastic season but cracks are starting to show, with nine runs allowed in 13 innings in his last two starts. He's only allowed more than two runs once in his first 12 starts, but it's worth noting his three poor outings have come against top-four offenses (Yankees, Guardians, Orioles). The Dodgers rank fifth, and if they get to him, the Royals could go to a rested 'pen early today. I like going either Over 2.5 earned runs or Under 17.5 outs, and I'll make the riskier play for bigger payout here.