Javier Assad has seen his total outs prop close at 15.5 in six straight games and only once this year has he been at 17.5 outs and that was against the Marlins (who we know are a major "outs over" target). This line should not be at 17.5 and I'd expect it moves down to at least 16.5 here. Assad has gone a full six innings in just three of ten starts this year and the Cardinals have won nine of their last 11 while being one of the best teams against righties in May. The Cubs bullpen should be readily available and inclement weather in the area could always help shorten a start!

This is a shockingly high outs line for the former reliever turned starter Javier Assad. Assad is having a strong season but has never gone more than 6 IP and has failed to eclipse this in 7/10 starts on the season. Assad really struggles the third time through the batting order where he surrenders an OPS of .926. As a result, the Cubs are very careful with him and the first sign of trouble they will pull him. I expected this line to open at 16.5 and likely close at 15.5.