James Paxon is good….the potent top of the Dodger lineup should hit 3x…and the Reds are simply average at best. Nice price. We don’t lose a tie.

I project James Paxton at 3.6 strikeouts. The Dodgers southpaw has been criminally lucky, with an xERA (5.55) and xFIP (5.43) almost three full points higher than his actual ERA (2.84). His 13% strikeout rate is the lowest it's been in his career. He hasn't thrown more than 4 strikeouts in a game since his season opener. The Reds offense isn't great against lefties, but they also don't strike out a lot, with a 20.4% K rate over the last month.

After dealing with a variety of injuries over the last three seasons, James Paxton is healthy and enjoying a solid season for the Dodgers. Paxton has thrown at least 6 IP in three consecutive games and will face a subpar Reds lineup that possesses the third lowest OPS in the MLB. The game is in a hitter friendly environment at Great American Ball Park, however considering the price point and Paxton's recent form, I think this spot provides value.