The Orioles at home might be my favorite bet this MLB season (followed by Royals at home). I totally get why they are underdogs here as they just finished a tough series in Boston on Thursday and used up a lot of the bullpen. They don't have the starting pitching advantage in Tyler Wells vs. Freddy Peralta. Don't care. I'm taking a +1.5 headstart in the entirety of the 2024 MLB season on Baltimore at home if offered. The O's could start a 66-year-old Mike Boddicker on the mound and I'm still doing it. With these different unit sizes and props, you are starting to see how I just take little nibbles all over the place. Why I don't sweat prices too much.

Jackson Holliday plays his first game at Camden Yards getting some of the jitters and learning curve out of the way in Fenway. Batting 9th in this long and athletic lineup and with a keen eye (like a .425 OBP in the minors) and great wheels to steal or score from first on a double, he's going to cross the plate quite a bit. I think he gets a knock in this game, but can also reach on an IF error as his speed puts pressure on the defense. With Gunnar, Adley, Santander, Mountcastle hitting after him, plenty of ways to get him in once he gets on.

We hardly expect a rain postponement on Thursday and a change of venue to slow down the runaway Brewers offense, which clubbed 24 runs in the first three game of the midweek series at Cincy before yesterday's rainout. Moreover, it's now 36 runs across the past four games if counting the 12 scored against Seattle on Sunday. Expect more damage done on Friday at Camden Yards as Birds starter Tyler Wells (5.06 ERA) has been very shaky in his first two starts, while the O's (off of a sweep at Boston) are unlikely to spend the entire game taking swings against Freddy Peralta, and his 0.60 WHIP across two starts. Play Brewers-Orioles "Over"