Not the best year for the Astros' Jose Urquidy, who labored with a 5.29 ERA in 2023, though he did close strong with six shutout innings in the first game of the season-ending sweep of the D-backs. He hasn't pitched in almost two weeks since, however, and now faces a desperate Twins team on the brink of elimination. Joe Ryan not especially sharp on the mound down the stretch for Minnesota, either, and also hasn't pitched in 12 days, though his last three home starts haven't been too terrible, posting a 3.44 ERA, with Minnesota wins in both of his September home starts (vs. the Rays and Angels).

I made a big deal down the stretch about the Astros' home woes, but they are road warriors and they showed as much in Game 3 against Sonny Gray. Joe Ryan gets the ball for the Twins in this one and the Astros are going to feast on him. They got him for nine runs in 10 innings this season and he had a 6.20 ERA in his last five starts. I love getting the Astros at even money here to close this thing down.

These two teams combined to score 10 runs in Game 3 on Tuesday. They have now scored at least eight runs in all three games of this series. Wednesday’s pitching matchup will be Joe Ryan against Jose Urquidy. Urquidy gave up 1.6 HR/9 this season on his way to a 5.29 ERA and a 5.38 FIP. Ryan had a 4.51 ERA and 4.13 FIP while allowing 1.8 HR/9. With two homer-prone pitchers on the mound, I like the over.

A lesser experienced team might take Game 4 for granted on Wednesday and then worry about Game 5 back at home ... but Houston is certainly not lacking in playoff experience so there will not be any letdown here. Joe Ryan really struggled down the stretch for the Twins and didn't fare all that well in two early-season starts vs. Houston. Yordan Alvarez is absolutely on fire for the Astros with three more hits today. Houston can use about its entire bullpen behind Jose Urquidy if need be. The righty threw nine straight shutout innings to close the regular season and but has yet to appear in this postseason. And we only need a one-run loss by the superior roster.