I normally go running for the hills (not the Lauren Conrad/Audrina Patridge version, but if they want to invite ... ) or play the opposite side when at least 3 SL experts are on the same play but, yeah, I have to agree. I waited for lineups to see if Jose Altuve was in there for Houston after leaving last night's game. He is. Thus, I'm good backing Justin Verlander against suddenly struggling Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins.

The Houston Astros will conclude a three game series against the Marlins in Miami today after splitting the first two games. Justin Verlander will start for Houston and the former Cy Young winner has been exceptional after a slow start to the season. It's been the opposite for young Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo who got off to a terrific start but has struggled down the stretch of the season. The Astros are are also very tough on opposing lefties and I expect them to provide Verlander with enough run support to get a win today.

Since the All-Star break, Houston has lost only one series (Tampa Bay) but they will need to win tonight behind Justin Verlander to avoid a series loss in Miami. Verlander has been stellar recently, firing a Quality Start in six of his last eight and he's not allowed more than three earned runs since June 20th, when he faced the Astros! This Houston lineup, with a top-5 OPS vs lefties, is primed to tee-off vs Jesus Luzardo, who has given up 15 earned runs in just his last three starts. A startling number, these recent blowups have been aided by five home runs allowed, and I think we see more fireworks tonight.

Going to back the Astros for the third day in a row. Getting a very good price here and Verlander has been lights out over the last few months and is in great form. Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo has been shelled for 11 ER in his previous two outings. Houston is also excellent at hitting opposing lefties as they possess the 4th highest OPS versus southpaws.

I like this matchup for the Astros, as I have some major concerns about Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins. Luzardo has allowed 5 home runs and 15 earned runs in his last three starts. xwOBA suggests that Luzardo has been very fortunate with his 4-seam fastball this season, as his xwOBA is over 40 points higher than the actual number. The average exit velocity on his slider is now above 92 MPH. The Astros are a top 5 team in wOBA and possess the lowest strikeout rate in MLB against left-handed pitching. Verlander will thrive in the robust pitching environment against a bottom 3rd offense when facing right-handed pitching. Based on my simulations, I have the Astros winning 56 percent of the time (-127).