One of the best hitting-weather days of the season in Atlanta will make it tough on pitchers. The Brewers' Adrian Houser is already a below-average starter; now he faces a negative park shift, as he typically plays in a retractable-roof stadium. He relies on a sinking fastball, but it won't sink the same in the near 90-degree heat. His prop markets also reflect the type of day he's going to have, with an outs-recorded line of 14.5 and strikeouts line of 3.5. The Braves' Yonny Chirinos will have the same problem with his sinker (.377 xwOBA) and slider (.483 xwOBA) combo. Expect runs and play the Over.

The Braves have lost three of their last four and stayed Under in all four as they’ve been slumping the last two weeks going 4-8. Adrian Houser has been keeping games close and the Brewers have won three of his last four starts but the most glaring figure for Houser this season is staying Under the total in his last 10 starts. The Brewers have stayed Under in 12 of their last 13. Under is the play.

The Braves have gone into an offensive funk, scoring four runs or fewer in each of their last four games. However, all four of those came on the road. At home, they have a .845 OPS. They will try to break out of their malaise in a matchup against Adrian Houser, who limited them to three runs over six innings in his last start. Given his 1.51 WHIP, I don’t expect him to have similar success in this rematch. The Brewers could also score plenty against Yonny Chirinos, who the Braves just claimed off waivers from the Rays. He hasn’t done a good job of keeping hitters inside the ballpark, giving up 10 home runs over 62 2/3 innings. Give me the over.