No Byron Buxton for the Twins but No. 1 M's catcher Cal Raleigh is out, so that's essentially an offensive wash with how bad Buxton's batting average is this year. Since being returned from his rehab assignment and reinstated from the 15-day IL, the Twins' Kenta Maeda has a 2.73 ERA and a .198 (18-for-91) opponent batting average in five starts. In 10 games since the All-Star break, the Twins bullpen has combined to go 6-0, 2.00 ERA (36.0 IP, 8 ER) with an opponent batting average of .194 (25-for-129) and an opponent OPS of .585. The M's have lost the past two started by Luis Castillo, including this exact matchup last week, although neither pitcher was involved in the decision.

The Twins won this exact pitching matchup last week in Seattle and it's not quite the mismatch it might appear to be. Kenta Maeda is on a nice run with a 2.73 ERA (2.56 FIP) in his last five starts since coming off the IL. Mariners All-Star Luis Castillo actually has a 3.78 ERA and 5.63 FIP in his last eight starts. The Mariners are a worse team on the road, the Twins are better at home and are hot right now, having won eight of their last 10. They just feel like the easy and obvious better team, playing at home and the odds aren't long.

These starting pitchers just matched up last Wednesday, the Twins winning 6-3 in Seattle. The Mariners' Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to left-handed bats this season (.747 OPS). Left-handed batters have accounted for 12 of the 19 homers he has surrendered, including blasts by Max Kepler and Edouard Julien last Wednesday, and Minny will have at least six in the lineup. Castillo will rack up strikeouts vs. Minnesota, but he'll also give up hard contact. This season he's allowed a career-high hard contact rate of 44.3 percent. Kenta Maeda owns a 2.76 ERA in six starts since returning from the injured list. The Twins are an MLB-best 8-2 since the All-Star Break.