New York's Justin Verlander has alternated poor starts with good ones pretty much all season so that means he's due to be in the good zone tonight. Verlander has been much better at home with a 3.24 ERA. This almost feels like an important game for the Mets because they gave away yesterday's loss to the Phillies. It's the Mets' final homestand before the break so it's time to start making up ground in the wild card chase or the front office may not be inclined to help at the Trade Deadline. Brewers starter Colin Rea has a 5.06 road ERA and there continues to be hard-hit contact off him. Milwaukee is 1-4 in its past five away. This might get ppd.

Justin Verlander, 40, has given up four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts. His overpriced team, the Mets, have lost six of their past eight to fall 15 games behind the Braves. My simulations show the visiting Brewers covering this run line 64 percent of the time.