I'm going with the Astros here. Cristian Javier is 7-1, and at home, he has a 2.27 ERA. On the other hand, Tylor Megill has been awful on the road, where he has a 7.42 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. The Mets are just 4-12 in their last 16 games. The juice is worth the squeeze for Houston today.

No Francisco Alvarez or Mark Canha for the Mets and no Jose Abreu for Houston. Advantage Astros because Abreu is having a down season. Alvarez is an NL ROY candidate and scored a run in each of the first two games of this series. Canha had an RBI in each. Pete Alonso hasn't gotten going yet since his return from a wrist injury. Apparent huge pitching edge for Houston with Cristian Javier over Tylor Megill. Going back to Aug. 31 of last season, Javier has won 11 of his last 12 decisions, which spans his last 20 regular season starts. The Astros are 16-4 in those. Megill has a 7.42 road ERA.

This would've scared me more a few days ago before Pete Alonso returned from the IL. Now that he's back, the Mets once again have the straw that stirs their drink. We're not asking the Mets to win outright here, just to keep the game close. Cristian Javier is good, but his peripherals indicate he's lucky that his ERA isn't at least a run higher -- and these aren't the Astros we're used to. The Mets are covering in 69% of my model's simulations.