Boston comes off a doubleheader yesterday against the Yankees. Minnesota's Pablo Lopez owns a 5.88 home ERA, but may see success against a Red Sox lineup coming off a rivalry series. The Twins have struggled at the plate, hitting .218 with a .665 OPS over their last seven days.

The Twins rank 28th in OPS (.661) versus left-handed pitching, as they've struck out 27.9 percent of the time against southpaws. Boston lefty James Paxton enters this one in excellent form: three earned runs allowed over his last three starts, covering 18 innings. The Red Sox had to travel after Sunday Night Baseball (and sweeping a split doubleheader from the Yankees), but I like their mojo after four straight wins and their chances versus Pablo Lopez (5.88 home ERA).