On the road, Aaron Nola has a 5.14 ERA. Ryne Nelson was able to keep the Phillies to three hits and just one run in six innings a couple of weeks ago in Philly, but at home, he has a 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Four of this six games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies have ended with nine or more runs this season; I like this one to end similarly. Take the over.

Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola has struggled on the road of late. In his last four road starts, Nola has allowed a combined 17 earned runs. The Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson faced the Phillies at the end of May, allowing one earned run in six innings. Each team is seeing the ball well against righties, Philadelphia hitting .264 on the road and Arizona hitting .270 at home. The Diamondbacks have lost its last two games and look to even the series with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte back in the lineup.

Thursday game. I'm presuming Snakes star Corbin Carroll will be in the lineup after he was given a rare night off Wednesday -- at least not in the starting lineup (simply for rest). He's already that much of a difference-maker and ranks No. 1 in the majors in offensive WAR. I don't really love Arizona pitcher Ryne Nelson, but he does come off 5.2 shutout innings and I only need him to keep this close. Philly's Aaron Nola is the much more accomplished guy but has been largely off this year and has a 5.14 ERA on the road.