Ryne Nelson (2-3, 5.40) is the weak link in the Arizona rotation but he's still probably equal to Detroit starter Matthew Boyd (3-4, 5.57), and the lineups aren't close. The Snakes' got a bit better today with Lourdes Gurriel (.310, 9 HR, 35 RBI) back and the Tigers' a bit worse with Akil Baddoo landing on the IL.

Detroit’s Matthew Boyd has yet to win a game at home. Boyd owns a 8.35 home ERA and the Tigers have lost four of Boyd’s five starts. Arizona’s Ryne Nelson pitches better on the road and has one allowed one earned run in his last two road starts. Detroit is hitting a league-worst .148 with a .480 OPS and 28 hits as compared to the Diamondbacks hitting .301 with a .875 OPS over their last seven days.

Both Ryne Nelson and Matthew Boyd have some significant home/road splits. However, this should work in favor of the Dbacks, as Nelson has been pitching much better on the road where he has a 3.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. On the other hand, in Detroit, Boyd is 0-4 and has an 8.34 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have won nine of their last 11 games and seven of their last eight on the road. Meanwhile, the Tigers are currently on a seven-game losing streak. We're getting great value on the Diamondbacks at -135. Take them now, as I fear this price will steepen by the AM.

The Tigers have lost seven straight games as their offense is just averaging 2.0 runs per game in this stretch. The Diamondbacks have been a pleasant surprise this season as they lead the NL West by 2.5 games. The D-Backs have won three straight games and nine of their last 11 games. They have also won seven of their last eight road games. The Diamondbacks have a 16-9 record in day games and the Tigers are just 13-21 in day games. They should be able to gets runs off of left-handed Matthew Boyd and easily win this game.