Detroit ranks last in runs scored on the road (3.33) and has to face Aaron Nola, who is not having a good year but remains capable of dominating this Tigers lineup. Joey Wentz has not lasted five innings since May 8. With the Phillies' offense waking up, I'll play the home team on the run line.

Hear me out here. Yes, Joey Wentz is bad. But Aaron Nola hasn't exactly been pitching well either. Philadelphia should win this game, but it's well within Detroit's capacity to keep things close. The Tigers are covering in 62% of my model's simulations.