Philadelphia faces Boston’s left-hander Chris Sale. The Phillies are hitting .250 with a .707 OPS against lefties this season. Sale has struggled on the road, but had a good outing last game, allowing one earned run off three hits in 6.1 innings. Philadelphia’s Zach Wheeler has faced rather easy lineups until this point and now faces a Red Sox team hitting .367 with a 1.030 OPS over their last seven days. Boston also leads the league in average, .280, and are 3rd in OPS, .826, against righties.

Chris Sale has looked like himself in two of his last three starts. He has allowed fewer hits than innings over that span and has a 5/1 K/BB ratio. The Red Sox have won six straight games and they are playing a Philly team that has lost four straight and is traveling home from the West Coast.

Boston has fielded the second-best offense in the sport over the last two weeks. It'll need those good bats against Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, who has looked good but beatable. If nothing else, that offense should help keep the Red Sox in the game, depending on which version of Chris Sale shows up. Two of his last three starts have been excellent, but the other was a disaster. The Sox offense is what has me feeling good about this. Boston is covering in 69% of my model's simulations.