Why wouldn't we take the cheap runline when Detroit just swept the struggling Mets in a doubleheader yesterday? Yes, it's the Mets debut of former Tiger Justin Verlander, but he might only be out there five innings or so. Detroit's best starter by far is on the mound in Eduardo Rodriguez (2.21 ERA). In two starts at Comerica Park, he's 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA.

The Tigers put up an impressive amount of fight in both ends of their double-header with the Mets yesterday, and should be able to do so again today. Justin Verlander figures to be fired up given that he's finally making his debut for New York, and doing it in his old stomping grounds, but the future Hall of Famer may be rusty and should be on a pitch count. There will be chances for the Detroit offense. The Tigers are covering in 64% of my model's simulations.