I thought I would do the Dodgers runline here simply because they are home dogs for the first time since 2018 and we never get to use +1.5 on them, but with Mookie Betts out again today (and Chris Taylor and Will Smith and Miguel Rojas) we have to back the Mets behind Max Scherzer, even if he's not quite what he used to be. Scherzer ranks tied for third all-time with 110 double-digit strikeout games in his career. His next 10+ K game will break a tie with Roger Clemens. Kinda doubt Scherzer gets 10 here but I prefer him over Noah Syndergaard and I much prefer the New York lineup. LA's is pretty much trash other than spots 2-4.

It feels odd to pick against the team starting Max Scherzer, but there's logic to this. Scherzer had his start pushed back from the weekend to today because of a back issue. His first two starts of the season were lackluster and featured diminished velocity, and while he looked better against the Padres, apparently that's not too hard to do this year. I'm not saying Father Time has finally caught up with the great Scherzer, just that he's not operating at full capacity. Mookie Betts will be back in the lineup for Los Angeles, and I expect the Dodgers to put up an admirable showing. L.A. is covering in 68% of my model's simulations.