Shane Bieber's great, but he can't score runs for the Guardians too. Cleveland's offense has been one of the worst in the league thus far, and while Domingo German is no ace, he should be able to the keep the Guardians relatively quiet. The Yankees should be able to keep this close -- they're covering in 73% of my model's simulations.

This is a significant pitching mismatch. Taking the hill for the Guardians will be Shane Bieber, who has never finished a season with a FIP above 3.32. Starting for the Yankees will be Domingo German, who didn’t pitch as well as his 3.61 ERA would lead you to believe last season. His FIP was 4.44 and he had just a 19.5 percent strikeout rate. As dangerous as the top of the Yankees’ lineup can be, expect Bieber to lead the Guardians to a victory.