The roof will be open tonight. Yes, the ball does travel far better with the roof open, and scoring is on average 1.5 runs higher a game. Houston's lineup over the last 45 days versus righties has a 120 wRC+ number, 20% above average. Astros starter Framber Valdez had a great year but had a 41% hard hit rate; the Yankees will have their share of hits tonight. The New York lineup is solid from top to bottom and should be rested after a good night's sleep in Houston. I'm on the Over.

Framber Valdez and Luis Severino both pitched well against the opposing team during the regular season. So I actually think that matchup is closer to even. However, the Astros have the big bullpen advantage in both depth and quality. They also have the big lineup advantage as we saw the bottom of their order produce their runs yesterday. Valdez is a groundball pitcher while the Yankees are fly ball hitters, so it will be interesting to see which aspect wins. But I like the Astros to hold serve at home tonight.

Houston's advantage isn't nearly as big tonight as the Yankees were able to rest their key bullpen guys Wednesday ... and honestly I probably would have taken New York had it been a reasonable runline price. It's not at -178 so I'll go right back to the Astros at the very reasonable -155 even though Framber Valdez was a tad shaky down the stretch. New York was very good against lefties this year but hasn't faced a starting southpaw since Oct. 3, when it saw the Rangers’ Martín Pérez in Arlington. I also think Astros star Jose Altuve is WAY overdue a big game -- he's 0-for-22 this postseason. It's Luis Severino for the Yanks. He wasn't great in his lone start in Cleveland.