The Padres have gone Over in their last five games and the Mets have done so in their last six following a win. San Diego RHP Joe Musgrove hasn’t allowed a run in three of his last four starts, but the Padres have lost three of his last five outings. He lost 8-5 to the Mets during a midseason slump. New York RHP Chris Bassitt’s last two starts have gone Over, and he was chased after yielding four runs in 2 2/3 innings against Atlanta in his last turn. The last three meetings have gone Over, so the Over is the top play.

This game seems like a toss up to me, and for that reason I have to go with the value on the Padres. Joe Musgrove has been pitching well lately, only allowing 1 run in his last 22 innings pitched. He did allow 4 ER in 5.1 IP against the Mets earlier this season. Chris Bassitt was just rocked by the Braves in the Mets first winner take all game of the season last Sunday. He actually struck out 11 batters and allowed just 2 ER when he faced the Padres, but that was in July before they made any of their trade deadline acquisitions. The Padres have won five of the eight games this season between these teams, and the Mets used Edwin Diaz for 1.2 IP last night while Josh Hader is very rested and ready to pitch two innings if needed. All the pressure is on the Mets tonight, and they haven't shown they can handle it yet this season. I like the value on the Padres.

Like to give some hard-hitting analysis here but home teams win do-or-die games more than they don't. Really that simple. The one time the Mets faced Joe Musgrove this year they hit him around fairly well. Mets starter Chris Bassitt had a 2.95 ERA at Citi Field this year compared to 4.00 away, although he doesn't have great numbers vs. the Padres. Whatever, I just want to care because Bengals-Ravens doesn't interest me a heck of a lot.