Believe this is the first time all season I've gone Under a 6.5 (wouldn't do it at 6), but I sure struggle to see many runs being scored. The Marlins are atrocious offensively as it is and are sitting Garrett Cooper and Brian Anderson against Joe Musgrove (2.91 ERA). I just have to hope Sandy Alcantara keeps a good Padres lineup largely in check as well. The Cy Young betting favorite is certainly capable of that with a 1.80 ERA at home. Miami is 8-14 O/U in Alcantara starts.

Joe Musgrove has really struggled lately, which is why this line is so low. He is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA in his last seven starts. However, he faces a Marlins team that hasn’t scored more than three runs in 13 straight games. He also pitched a quality start against them earlier this season. Sandy Alcantara is probably going to win the Cy Young, but he has been a little more susceptible lately and the Padres might only need 3 or 4 runs to win this game. I like the Padres on the road.

The Marlins are brutal right now. They've lost 13 of their last 16 games and have only scored 31 runs in that span. Let's all thank Sandy Alcantara for being so awesome, because he's the reason we get decent odds on this one. The Marlins have lost three of his last five starts with the two wins coming over the hapless Pirates and Reds. He can't do everything on his own, after all. Even if he's nearly perfect, the offense and bullpen will let the team down. On the other side, Joe Musgrove gets the ball for the Padres and he'll be able to dominate the Marlins' woeful offense. He had gone through a rough stretch, but gave up just one run in seven innings last time out. He'll keep that momentum going.

We have a good pitching matchup tonight in Sandy Alcantara and Joe Musgrove. Alcantara faced the Padres in San Diego and allowed three runs (two earned, one unearned) in 4.2 innings, allowing the Padres a 3-2 win. Musgrove went seven innings against the Marlins, surrendering only two earned runs, also leading San Diego to a 3-2 victory. The Marlins have scored three or fewer runs in 13 straight games, and they're only 7-17 since the All-Star Break. Take the value in the Padres.