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Mon 08/15 | 10:40 PM UTC | Miami
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
San Diego Padres 86-69, -329 ML
SD -1.5+130
SD -145
Over 6.5-105
Miami Marlins 64-91, -3048 ML
MIA +1.5-155
MIA +122
Under 6.5-115

Expert Picks

MLB | San Diego 0 @ Miami 3 | 08/15 | 10:40 PM UTC

UNDER 6.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Believe this is the first time all season I've gone Under a 6.5 (wouldn't do it at 6), but I sure struggle to see many runs being scored. The Marlins are atrocious offensively as it is and are sitting Garrett Cooper and Brian Anderson against Joe Musgrove (2.91 ERA). I just have to hope Sandy Alcantara keeps a good Padres lineup largely in check as well. The Cy Young betting favorite is certainly capable of that with a 1.80 ERA at home. Miami is 8-14 O/U in Alcantara starts.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+5228 345-202-1 IN LAST 548 MLB PICKS
+379 6-2 IN LAST 8 MIA O/U PICKS

Season Splits

86-69, -329 ML
64-91, -3048 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
55%
65-52, -156
50-65, -1898
43%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
53%
32-28, +108
23-32, -1470
41%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
56%
45-35, -813
21-45, -1951
31%
When Line was -162 to -132
MONEY LINE
When Line was +110 to +140
48%
14-15, -528
11-22, -818
33%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
53%
17-15, -441
4-17, -1253
19%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
59%
32-22, -323
17-28, -907
37%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
71%
5-2, +316
6-26, -1879
18%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
52%
48-43, -589
37-49, -1410
43%
vs MIA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SD
75%
3-1, +136
1-3, -200
25%
when Joe Musgrove starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Sandy Alcantara starts
65%
13-7, +275
14-9, +173
60%