Nathan Eovaldi has made two starts against the Yankees this season, both of which went over. Eovaldi has not pitched well at home, where he holds a 6.81 ERA. He’s also struggled as of late, warranting a 7.11 ERA over his five most recent starts. The once mighty Yankees have also faced some challenges, as they have dropped seven of their last eight games. New York pitcher Domingo German struggled in his debut but has looked good in his three starts since. Still, the Red Sox offense has put up four or more runs in six consecutive games. The over has hit in seven straight when these teams have played and is 8-2 this season, so I’ll take my chances tonight. 

Nathan Eovaldi has struggled lately with a 4.95 ERA in his last seven starts and a lot of it is due to his velocity decrease. He is a strike thrower, and when strike throwers aren't on their game, they will miss pitches over the plate instead of off the plate and that leads to hits. The Yankees are also coming off the off-day and they are 10-5 in that spot. Domingo German struggled in his first start off the IL but he has pitched well in his three starts since. Take the Yankees at almost a pick 'em.

Both teams have had lots of success against the opposing starter. Domingo German is allowing a 45.9% hard-hit rate, while Nathan Eovaldi's is allowing a 46.3%. German's ERA is 5.68 on the road, while Eovaldi's home ERA is 6.56 this season. Fenway Park ranks No. 5 in runs scored and No. 4 in home runs allowed. Finally, the Over is 3-1 when the total is set at 9 when these teams meet this season.