Jordan Lyles has been great at home, as evidenced by his 2.72 ERA, but he has still struggled against the Rays this season. Just a couple of weeks ago in Tampa, Lyles gave up six runs in 2.2 IP, and earlier this season, he surrendered 5 ER over 5.0 IP. Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.91 ERA, and both of his starts against the Orioles this season ended up going over. Both bullpens are decent but should be pretty worn down after last night. The Orioles are sitting a few players, so I don't like this play as much as I did on the show, but I still think the over is worth a shot.

I had planned to play the Orioles in this matchup if all things even, but they are resting three key hitters in Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins and Rougned Odor. So I was going to pivot to the Rays RL, but they are resting three regulars as well in Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena and Christian Bethancourt. Thus, let's take a shot on the total -- even though I don't love either starting pitcher -- as Camden Yards has become a much harder place to homer with the fences changed in the offseason and a lot of offense missing today.