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Understanding Public and Money
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I like getting a team on a 14 game win streak at plus money. The Mariners haven't played since last Sunday and the Astros just played a doubleheader in Houston yesterday where they used six relievers. Astros starter Jose Urquidy has been terrible against the Mariners. In his three starts against Seattle this season, Urquidy has allowed 27 hits and 15 runs across 13 innings and recorded a loss in all three. Mariners starter Marco Gonzales has been great at home with a 2.61 ERA over his last five home starts. Take the Mariners to extend their win streak.
The Astros just played a high-intensity double-header in Houston before flying to Seattle while the Mariners rested up on Thursday. Mariners starting pitcher Marco Gonzales has done well in his three starts against the Astros this season (2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings in three starts) and the Mariners' back-end of the bullpen is lights out at this point (and, again, rested). Gonzales is a lefty and the Astros hit lefties worse than right-handers. Meanwhile, Astros starter Jose Urquidy has a 5.20 road ERA this season (vs. 2.63 at home).
The Mariners won 14 in a row heading into the All-Star break. I like fading such teams after taking four days off. Houston has a lot of momentum after sweeping the Yankees in a double-header on Thursday. There's value on the slight road favorite Friday.
The Mariners have now won 14 straight games and they will be taking that win streak into the second half. However, that’s not why I like this game. Honestly, I think the momentum they had is almost completely wiped out with the break. But the Astros just played a doubleheader at home out of the break yesterday, then they had to travel across the country. Marco Gonzales has been good this year and he already has two quality starts against the Astros this season. The Astros are also ranked just 19th in the league in wOBA against lefties in the past 30 days. Jose Urquidy has been much worse on the road and he has been hit hard by the Mariners all three times he has faced them this season.
Do you believe in trap games? This feels like possibly one for the Astros after they impressively swept a doubleheader on Thursday at home vs. the hated Yankees -- remember, Houston closer Ryan Pressly is out on the paternity list and maybe the Astros' second-best reliever, Rafael Montero, was used in both games so he's surely not available here. Seattle looks to tie a franchise record with its 15th straight win and starts Marco Gonzales, who has a 2.66 ERA in three starts this year against the Stros. In addition, former AL Rookie of the Year outfielder Kyle Lewis is expected to be activated for the M's; he has been out since late-May. Jose Urquidy starts for Houston, and he has 10.38 ERA this year in 13 innings vs. the Mariners. Given the circumstances (Houston off DH, travel, no Pressly, etc.), I think Seattle should be slightly favored at home or maybe a pick'em but if the books want to give me +1.5 as a gift, I'll take it even at -165 via Caesars (FanDuel is currently charging -182).