Max Scherzer is clearly good enough to win this himself for the Mets, but they are without three regulars in All-Stars Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil and catcher James McCann due to injury/paternity list. McCann hasn't done much this year but no Marte and McNeil is big. All-Star closer Edwin Diaz probably isn't available. Atlanta's Max Fried (9-2, 2.52 ERA) can go toe-to-toe with Scherzer as the lefty and first-time All-Star has allowed two earned or fewer in eight of his past nine. For some odd reason, the Braves are starting Robinson Cano at second after picking him up off waivers. Apparently they don't realize this isn't 2017 when Cano was good. Maybe he'll punish one of his former teams tonight ... and maybe I'll grow gills and become The Deep. Doubtful on both. The Braves have won four straight series openers. New York has lost four in a row vs. teams with a winning record. The Under 7.5 runs is tempting as well.

Max Scherzer was his dominant self in his return from an oblique strain last time out, going six scoreless innings versus Cincinnati with no walks and 11 strikeouts. Max Fried has been just as dominant, allowing two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts and one run or fewer in six of his last eight starts. Both Maxs are in the top 10 pitchers in the MLB.

The Braves are the second-best team in the league in the past 30 days at 20-8 and that includes 12-4 at home. The Mets are just 14-12 in that span and 5-5 on the road. The Braves are only 1.5 games back of the Mets for the NL East and I wouldn’t be surprised if that flips this series. The Braves have been playing very well and probably circled this series a while ago. They have Max Fried starting and he is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last 7 games, and 9-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last 15 games. We all know Max Scherzer and he will probably be good but he has also only made one start off the IL so I wouldn’t expect anything like a complete game. The Braves bullpen has been much better lately and Edwin Diaz has also pitched each of the past two days. I like the Braves at home.

My model says the Braves win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Atlanta trailed New York by 10 1/2 games in the NL East at the beginning of June but has gone 29-8 since to reduce the deficit to 1 1/2. Braves LHP Max Fried hasn't lost since his second start of the season on Apr. 13 and worked six strong innings in a win against the Mets in May. Take the Braves.