I think the Reds should be slight favorites, so I'm going to take the runline even at a pricy -170 just as a precaution against a one-run loss (and this feels like a one-run game in either direction). Joey Votto is sitting Game 1 and Cincinnati did blow out its bullpen a bit last night in a loss to the Mets, but the Pirates had to travel late to southern Ohio after getting bludgeoned by the Yankees, and Pittsburgh is sitting stud rookie Oneil Cruz and slugger Daniel Vogelbach in the opener (and its No. 1 catcher and 2B). Bucs rookie pitcher Roansy Contreras has started to show some cracks and he has been generally worse on the road.

The Pirates played a late game last night then had to travel to Cincinnati for a doubleheader. I can’t imagine them taking both games today on the road where they are much on worse on the season at 13-25 with that travel. Mike Minor actually pitched really well in his last start and that was against the red-hot Braves. Roansy Contreras had been solid all season, but he is coming off his worst start of the year against the Brewers. If the Reds do lose this game, the goal is to just keep it close enough to where the Pirates have to use their best relievers so we can play the Reds in the second game of the doubleheader to try to break even.