The Padres have won the last six meetings in this rivalry. The Padres just lost three of four at home to the Phillies after sweeping three from Arizona. This same pitching matchup was won by Sean Manaea and the Padres, 3-2. After a sluggish start for Manaea with the Padres, they’ve won five of his last six starts. Back the Padres to win.

The Diamondbacks are 8-15 this month and they were just swept by the Padres in San Diego. Those games were all without Manny Machado as well. Zac Gallen has pitched well this season, but the Padres saw him the last time around the rotation. Sean Manaea has also pitched well this season, so I think the starting pitching is mostly a wash. But the Padres have the 5th best bullpen ERA in June while the Diamondbacks have the 22nd. The Padres are also 6-1 against the Diamondbacks this season. The Diamondbacks struggle against lefties, and the Padres have been dominating this matchup. The Padres are also better on the road at 24-14. I like the Padres on the road.

My model says the Padres win in over 60 percent of the simulations, giving you strong value with them at this number. San Diego had a rough weekend series against Philadelphia, losing three of the four contests. But the Padres swept a three-game set versus Arizona prior to that, outscoring the Diamondbacks 17-7. San Diego has won six straight meetings with Arizona since losing the season opener. Take the Padres.