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Thu 06/23 | 4:20 PM UTC | Atlanta
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
San Francisco Giants 40-39, -814 ML
SF +1.5-160
SF +125
Over 9+100
Atlanta Braves 48-34, -244 ML
ATL -1.5+140
ATL -145
Under 9-120

Expert Picks

San Francisco 6 @ Atlanta 7 | 06/23 | 4:20 PM UTC

San Francisco +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: The Braves should be solidly favored behind Kyle Wright (7-4, 2.94 ERA), but their lineup looks rather weak today with Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley and Adam Duvall sitting and the likes of Phil Gosselin and Guillermo Heredia starting. There also might be a bit of a lookahead factor here with the Dodgers and Freddie Freeman's return on tap Friday. We are getting the Giants cheaper (-145) on the runline than we would backing the Braves ML and that seems smart here. SF starter Alex Wood (5-5, 4.32 ERA) is a bit hit-or-miss but has allowed two earned or fewer in three of his past four. The Under might not be a bad play, either, but I haven't looked at hitting conditions because I largely stink at totals.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1751 206-129 IN LAST 335 MLB PICKS

Season Splits

40-39, -814 ML
48-34, -244 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
55%
38-31, -98
41-30, -305
57%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
52%
19-17, -123
23-15, -166
60%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
38%
7-11, -130
34-18, +179
65%
When Line was +109 to +139
MONEY LINE
When Line was -161 to -131
30%
3-7, -313
14-5, +441
73%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
26%
4-11, -558
22-12, +41
64%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
51%
17-16, +44
13-11, +15
54%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
33%
3-6, -280
20-10, +88
66%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
60%
30-20, +505
31-22, -159
58%
vs ATL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SF
25%
1-3, -145
3-1, +105
75%
when Alex Wood starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Kyle Wright starts
50%
7-7, -297
9-5, +41
64%