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    Thu 06/23 | 4:20 PM UTC | Atlanta
    SpreadMoney Lineo/u
    San Francisco Giants 30-30, -132 ML
    SF +1.5-160
    SF +125
    Over 9+100
    Atlanta Braves 36-24, -36 ML
    ATL -1.5+140
    ATL -145
    Under 9-120

    Expert Picks

    MLB | San Francisco 6 @ Atlanta 7 | 06/23 | 4:20 PM UTC

    San Francisco +1.5 -145

    WIN

    ANALYSIS: The Braves should be solidly favored behind Kyle Wright (7-4, 2.94 ERA), but their lineup looks rather weak today with Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley and Adam Duvall sitting and the likes of Phil Gosselin and Guillermo Heredia starting. There also might be a bit of a lookahead factor here with the Dodgers and Freddie Freeman's return on tap Friday. We are getting the Giants cheaper (-145) on the runline than we would backing the Braves ML and that seems smart here. SF starter Alex Wood (5-5, 4.32 ERA) is a bit hit-or-miss but has allowed two earned or fewer in three of his past four. The Under might not be a bad play, either, but I haven't looked at hitting conditions because I largely stink at totals.

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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays
    +460 19-10 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS
    +840 13-3 IN LAST 16 ATL ATS PICKS

    Season Splits

    30-30, -132 ML
    36-24, -36 ML
    All Games
    ALL
    All Games
    55%
    38-31, -98
    41-30, -305
    57%
    On Road
    LOCATION
    At Home
    52%
    19-17, -123
    23-15, -166
    60%
    As Underdog or Even
    STATUS
    As Favorite
    38%
    7-11, -130
    34-18, +179
    65%
    When Line was +109 to +139
    MONEY LINE
    When Line was -161 to -131
    30%
    3-7, -313
    14-5, +441
    73%
    As Road Underdog
    LOCATION & STATUS
    As Home Favorite
    26%
    4-11, -558
    22-12, +41
    64%
    vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
    OPP WIN%
    vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
    51%
    17-16, +44
    13-11, +15
    54%
    vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
    OPP DEFENSE
    vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
    33%
    3-6, -280
    20-10, +88
    66%
    3rd game without a day off
    REST
    3rd game without a day off
    60%
    30-20, +505
    31-22, -159
    58%
    vs ATL
    HEAD TO HEAD
    vs SF
    25%
    1-3, -145
    3-1, +105
    75%
    when Alex Wood starts
    PROJECTED STARTER
    when Kyle Wright starts
    50%
    7-7, -297
    9-5, +41
    64%