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Thu 06/23 | 4:35 PM UTC | Pittsburgh
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Chi. Cubs 34-48, -810 ML
CHC -1.5+145
CHC -115
Over 8.5-105
Pittsburgh Pirates 33-47, -235 ML
PIT +1.5-170
PIT -105
Under 8.5-115

Expert Picks

Chi. Cubs 7 @ Pittsburgh 8 | 06/23 | 4:35 PM UTC

Pittsburgh 100

WIN

ANALYSIS: I'm really not sure why the Cubs are favored here. In a getaway game, they are starting Nelson Velazquez in right field and PJ Higgins at first base. As a Cubs fan, I can only LOL. Justin Steele is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA on the road. The Cubs started going downhill as a franchise, frankly, when they traded Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana, who goes for the Bucs. Quintana (1-4, 3.66 ERA) has started to regress to the mean, but we still like Pittsburgh at home. The Cubs are 2-6 in their past eight vs. lefties. I'd probably take the PIT runline if it was reasonably priced as I think getting +1.5 runs here is a gift, but it's not worth -160 compared to +100 to winning outright.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1751 206-129 IN LAST 335 MLB PICKS
+1215 33-15 IN LAST 48 CHC ML PICKS
+474 18-8 IN LAST 26 PIT ML PICKS

Season Splits

34-48, -810 ML
33-47, -235 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
37%
26-44, -1440
29-40, -110
42%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
40%
13-19, -331
17-20, -183
45%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
36%
7-12, -702
20-34, -196
37%
When Line was -129 to +101
MONEY LINE
When Line was -119 to +111
33%
5-10, -561
6-6, -11
50%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
42%
3-4, -166
9-15, -293
37%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
34%
8-15, -732
11-12, -175
47%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
36%
12-21, -947
16-14, +172
53%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
38%
20-32, -1040
23-25, +645
47%
vs PIT
HEAD TO HEAD
vs CHC
38%
5-8, -456
8-5, +419
61%
when Justin Steele starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Jose Quintana starts
35%
5-9, -266
7-7, +253
50%