This one feels like a toss up, so taking the underdog here makes sense. The Braves were a great road team this season, going 46-35 away from home. They split games in Milwaukee in the NLDS and were one late meltdown away from taking two of three in Dodger Stadium. Charlie Morton was better on the road as well. He's been here before, having already pitched in the World Series for the Astros (and Rays). He was brilliant in the 2017 World Series. I'll go with him shutting down his former teammates here.

The Astros have done well against right-handed pitchers this season and face one in Charlie Morton, so I expect they should be able to win Game 1. Atlanta struggled this year against elite offenses; the Braves faced the AL East in interleague play and surrendered an average of 6.6 runs against the Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays, going a combined 2-11 against them. The Astros are arguably better than all three of those teams, so it appears as though the Braves may have their hands full. This is a serious step up in competition from the Brewers and even the Max Muncy-less Dodgers. The Houston lineup is deep and will have Yordan Alvarez available to DH in the American League park.

I'd like to provide some hard-hitting analysis here, but I'm simply going with the Astros at home, where they have lost once in these playoffs. Their bats also got cooking in the final three games of the ALCS. All three of Atlanta's losses in this postseason have been away. I'd imagine Houston has quite the scouting report on Braves starter Charlie Morton considering he used to pitch for Houston. If it matters, and I'm not sure how much it does, Atlanta was just 6-14 vs. the AL this season.

The Braves add the DH for this game, meaning they will add the right-handed bat in Jorge Soler to their already stacked lineup. The Braves hot lefties in Rosario and Freeman will also be hitting with the short porch in left field. However, both teams should have all bullpen arms available and both pitchers have pitched well in this scenario before, but I would still favor the over with the push scenario at 5-3.

Charlie Morton faced the Astros two times in the ALCS last season including Game 7 and he didn’t allow a run in either start. Charlie Morton also started, and won, Game 7 of the World Series in 2017 when the Astros won. Framber Valdez absolutely shoved in his last outing against the Red Sox and his only bad postseason outing was against the Red Sox in Game 1 on the ALCS. I think this game is a toss-up, so I am going to lean with the underdogs in the Braves.