I'm pretty shocked the moneyline has dropped so much -- I was actually considering Boston on the runline when the Rays were -180 but not now. Was pondering going contrarian to all the other experts, but the Red Sox are without JD Martinez again. Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan had a 2.81 ERA this year in 16 innings vs. Boston -- and of course Tampa Bay has by far the better bullpen. The Red Sox are 4-12 in their last 16 games as a road underdog and have lost seven of their past nine at the Trop.

Tampa Bay is the better team and I expect it to win the first two games at home without leaving much to chance. There were no home playoff games last season, but in the previous four years, home teams won seven of the eight ALDS Game 1 matchups. Rays LHP Shane McClanahan should be able to limit Boston, as he kept his ERA under 3.00 over the last two months of the season and appears to be in good form. Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has been a bit shaky this year and the team just played a big game two nights ago, which could mean resting some bullpen arms. Expect the Rays to get it done.

The Rays were eight games better in the regular season. They were 52-29 at home. They were 11-8 vs. the Red Sox. The Red Sox are sending lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill and he had a 4.74 ERA this season. The last time the Rays saw him, he coughed up six runs in just 3 2/3 innings. The Rays have beat up lefties lately, too. On the other side, Rays starter Shane McClanahan has a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts and they've had a few days to get their bullpen perfectly lined up. Easy Rays pick here.

I was planning to stay off this game with the Rays opening at -180 but now the odds have swung enough to make a play. The Rays had been crushing left-handed pitching to end the season putting up the 3rd highest wOBA in September in the league against lefties. The Red Sox have been worse against lefties in the same time span, although they haven’t been terrible at 8th in the league. Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching well lately to just about every team but the Rays, who he allowed 6 ER in 3.2 IP to in his last matchup. Shane McClanahan has faced Boston three times this season and allowed 1 or 0 runs in 2 of the 3 games pitching at least 5 innings in all 3 starts. The Rays are 7-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 11 of the past 15 matchups straight up. The Red Sox will be riding the momentum of their Wild Card win which is the only thing I am worried about, but with the line coming down so hard there is much less risk. Take the Rays.

The Rays won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Boston, and they have the pitching edge in Game 1. Boston had to use Nathan Eovaldi in the Wild Card game. So Eduardo Rodriguez, who's been shaky with a 4.74 ERA, gets the nod. Tampa Bay counters with rookie Shane McClanahan; he was dynamite over his last 17 starts (3.01 ERA). And in three starts against Boston this season, the lefty posted a 2.81 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 16 innings. The Rays are 38-13 in their last 51 games as home favorites.