Should the Indians even be underdogs? I'm not sure they should, but I'll take the +1.5 runline gift behind Cal Quantrill. While the Tribe lost his last outing, it wasn't Quantrill's fault as he allowed just two earned over six -- his sixth straight start allowing two earned or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Griffin Jax has a 6.14 ERA at home. The Twins are just 3-10 in their past 13 following a win.

My model says the Twins win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Cleveland lost four of five before trouncing Detroit on Sunday, but Minnesota has won four of five after taking two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend. Twins rookie RHP Griffin Jax has won back-to-back starts and allowed three runs or fewer in four straight. He also notched his first major-league victory against Cleveland on June 25. Take the Twins.