The Indians have lost three straight behind Sam Hentges. He allowed 14 earned runs across those starts and didn’t make it out of the fourth in any of them. Since May 29, Luis Castillo has been one of the best NL starters, allowing two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts, and the Reds have won his last three. The Reds also have a five-game win streak with the NL wildcard in sight. Take the Reds to win.

This is a one-game makeup series. One would think I had learned my lesson on the Reds and their gas-can bullpen, but they are rolling right now (nine games over .500 for first time in eight years) get to add the DH and have the massive edge on the mound with Luis Castillo over Sam Hentges (7.86 ERA). Castillo had a 7.33 ERA this year in his first 11 starts and it's 1.70 in his past 10. Cleveland is 2-7 in its past nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Laying the juice here instead of the run line, where the Reds burned me on Sunday. Although Cincinnati is on fire, winning five straight and 10 of its last 12, it has only covered 40 percent of the time on the run line as a favorite this season. Reds RHP Luis Castillo has been solid over the last few months, and that is highlighted by his 4.9 percent barrel rate and .356 xSLG percentage on the year. By comparison, Indians LHP Sam Hentges has a 12.3 percent barrel rate and a .497 xSLG to accompany his 7.86 ERA, all of which are in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Back the Reds to keep their winning streak alive.