Hitting conditions failed me yesterday, but you can't let a bad day scare you off. Winds are blowing close to 20mph tonight in Chicago and they're going to be directed out of the park. It can not be understated how drastically this impacts Wrigley Field more than other parks. We hit last time the conditions looked like this in Chi-town, although that game went to extras. I don't think we need extended play today, mostly because Zach Davies has a chance to give up all 10 runs in the first five innings. Most likely scenario is an 8th inning cash off of the sub par Cubs bullpen, as taking an Over with their lack of quality relief arms never hurts either. I expect we get to double digits, take the Over.

The Cubs have lost 13 of their last 14 when facing a team with a winning record. I expect tonight to be no different as they are a meager 19-39 when the odds make them the underdog. Dylan Cease is much better than Zach Davies as well. Cease is striking out 30.2 percent of batters and walking just 9.3 percent to go along with a .293 xwOBA, all career bests. Meanwhile, Davies is pitching to a .364 xwOBA, a career worst, as well as 15.8 percent K-rate and a 5.85 expected ERA, all of which are in the bottom 10 percent of qualified pitchers. The White Sox should have no issue, grab the money line since the Cubs have kept games close at home.

The wind will be blowing out to center at 15-20 miles per hour. Cubs RHP Zach Davies has a 6.14 ERA with a 1.81 WHIP over his last six starts. White Sox RHP Dylan Cease has been average in his road outings. Since the trade deadline, the Cubs have gone with veteran minor leaguers instead of youngsters. These guys have a lot to prove.

I realize the White Sox are one of the best teams in the AL and the Cubs are in full rebuilding mode. But this line is way too skewed toward the south siders. White Sox starter Dylan Cease, a former Cubs prospect, is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA in two starts against his former team. Take the Cubs.