The Cubs will have Kris Bryant back in the lineup -- barring a trade (Nelson Cruz deal burned me Thursday night) -- and closer Craig Kimbrel should be available after he wouldn't have been yesterday. This is Chicago's first home game since the break and the Cubs are simply a different club at Wrigley. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 2.78 ERA in day games this year. I don't take much stock in day of the week trends, but Arizona is a laughable 2-14 in its past 16 Friday games and just horrid on the road. The Snakes are without leading hitter and OBP guy Josh Rojas as well. He's tied for the team lead with a WAR of 2.1. I tend to agree with Justin Perri on the Over and that's a great stat he provided.

Cubs at home, wind blowing out and a subpar pitcher for Chicago? I will happily go Over. This one opened at 11 but has been bet down likely due to the recent success of Zac Gallen. I think the market is wrong with that, and I'll take the number at 10. The wind is such a huge factor at this park that of the last 110 games played at Wrigley with similar conditions the run scoring has been 23 percent higher than on an average day in Chicago. This is one of those scenarios you play systemically because you will win long-term. Let's go with the Over.