This may be the first time all season that I've backed awful Arizona to win a game, but it's WAY more about Colorado being a comical 6-33 on the road, sitting top outfielder Charlie Blackmon and starting Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52) on the mound. He's 0-5 with a 6.81 ERA on the road and allowed four runs over 4.2 innings in his lone 2021 start vs. the Snakes. Arizona is 13-6 in its past 19 as a home favorite.

One of the most fascinating stat lines of the year has got to be what Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Colorado starters have done at Coors this year. Somehow Gonzalez and his counterparts are worse on the road even though they pitch at dreaded Coors as a home park. Gonzalez is 1-0 over five starts at home, only allowing three home runs. On the road he’s 0-4 in seven starts with nine home runs allowed. On Thursday he is pitching against Jake Faria, who doesn’t have many innings this season and likely only throws four innings. I’ll bet the Rockies get an extended look at the Diamondbacks bullpen and Gonzalez struggles on the road. Take the Over.

This opened with a fairly high total of 9.5 runs, but nearly 70 percent of my model simulations lean Over that number with the average final score totaling around 11.7 runs. Both projected starting pitchers have ERAs of at least 5.25 on the season. The Over is 13-6 in the Diamondbacks' past 19 home games vs. a team with a losing record.