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Expert Picks
Los Angeles, an underdog for the first time since 2019, remains without three big bats in the injured Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. San Diego meanwhile, expects MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup (see news feed) after sitting Sunday with a shoulder issue. It's former Dodger Yu Darvish (6-2, 2.57) on the mound for San Diego. He has allowed just 59 hits while striking out 97 across 84 innings this season and has a 1.29 ERA in two starts vs. L.A. It's lefty Julio Urias (9-2, 3.54) for the Dodgers, and the Friars have won their past six vs. southpaws.
The last time the Dodgers faced the Padres, they blew a 7-1 lead and lost in 11 innings. On Monday, they’ll see RHP Yu Darvish for the third time and catch him in non-peak form. Darvish has served up a home run in each of his last four starts and also has seen his strikeout rate decline. Back the Dodgers to get their fourth straight win.
This is just the second time in 73 games that the Dodgers aren't favorites, and I don't think you should take the opportunity to get them at plus money. Quite the opposite, actually. If anything, there's got to be a real reason a market darling like the Dodgers is being offered at this price. I am seeing about a 15% drop off in the Dodgers' offensive numbers on the road this season, which is illustrated by their 122 to 104 home/away split in the weighted run creation plus metric. Then factor in that the Padres are a 25-14 home team playing behind Yu Darvish, who has been in spectacular form when pitching at Petco Park. I'll take the Padres here and will sprinkle half unit on the F5 line as well.