Max Scherzer's hamstring benefitted a lot from him being pushed back to Game 3, and this is a very reasonable price on the ace. I expect the Nats to improve to 37-16 in Scherzer's last 53 road starts.

I have the Cubs winning 56 percent of simulations at Wrigley after making a minor adjustment to account for hamstring injury concerns for Max Scherzer. Home field is a much larger advantage during the postseason and it will be enough for the Cubs to win this game behind Quintana.

I'm playing the Cubs at +110 on Monday afternoon, as they're winning 56 percent of my simulations. Max Scherzer (hamstring) might not be 100 percent and the Cubs have won 19 of their last 26 home games. The Nats are 2-5 in their last seven games at Wrigley.