The Trojans have been opportunistic on defense, and the Bruins have eight turnovers in seven conference games. Trojans coach Lincoln Riley isn't going to be intimidated by anything that the Bruins defense has put on tape. What's more, he wouldn't mind taking advantage of the national spotlight by making a College Football Playoff statement and boost quarterback Caleb Williams' Heisman Trophy campaign in the process.

USC clinches a spot in the Pac-12 title game, and the Trojans are really the only team in the league with a shot at the playoff. I don't care about the spread here -- slight lean on USC even though it lost star running back Travis Dye for the season last week -- but I'm going to follow what I've been doing all season on monster Pac-12 totals: Under. Largely has been working.

The last four USC-UCLA meetings have been track meets, flying way Over the total. Last season UCLA won, 62-33. But the Bruins were just upset by Arizona, 34-28, at the Rose Bowl. USC (9-1) controls its own fate and has a quarterback in Caleb Williams vying for the Heisman Trophy (31 touchdowns, two interceptions). The Trojans have extra incentive to beat UCLA, and the Bruins want to end USC's College Football Playoff hopes. Neither team is great on defense. I don’t think we’ll see much punting. Over is the top play.