I mean you see the price and I hate all things Mets or Metz -- the fighting Darryl Strawberries are dead last in the Ligue 1 and absolutely should lose here. But short of, I dunno, Kendall Jenner (ick) as the starting goalkeeper I'm pretty much gonna take +1.5 in a domestic match. Our model has Lille 1.7-1.1, and I expect and shall root for a one-goal win.

Lille are in some of the worst form we've seen in years. The team is still fifth on the table, but they are bleeding points away right now. They have lost their last four Ligue 1 matches. And yet here I am, betting on them to score some dang goals. Lille will not be given a better chance this season for an easy "bounceback match". Metz are the worst club with the worst defense in the league, having conceded 46 goals. Lille played them three months ago and scored six goals in that match. I know they've been out of form, but I'm betting on them to find their scoring boots against Metz.

Lille have been just horrendous in recent weeks. They have one win and six losses in their last seven matches. They are getting bullied by teams like Lyon, Rennes, Strasbourg and more. Something is just off with this club, and manager Bruno Genesio is dealing with backlash from players and fans a like. This team needs a win, desperately, so the timing is perfect to play Metz. These two met in October of last year and Lille ran over them winning 6-1. Metz has the worst defense in the league, and this is the rare chance for Lille to find their footing again. They have to go for it.