Reds vs. Astros Friday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Rookie Andrew Abbott off to historic start, can get surging Cincinnati to .500 for first time since April 9

If the Cincinnati Reds can get even decent starting pitching for the rest of this season, they absolutely can win the mediocre NL Central. The Reds' lineup is now among the NL's best thanks to a few stellar rookies led by Elly De La Cruz. Yet arguably the most impressive Reds rookie so far has to be lefty pitcher Andrew Abbott, who he has yet to allow an earned run in his two starts. Yet Abbott is set at over/under 3.5 earned runs allowed on Friday in series opener in Houston against the Astros. Cincinnati is a sizable underdog at Caesars Sportsbook despite being one of the hottest teams in the league.

It's not as if Abbott is the top-ranked prospect in the sport and this early dominance was expected – he's ranked No. 94 overall in MLB and No. 6 on the Reds. The 24-year-old lefty, a 2021 second-round pick out of Virginia, made his big-league debut on June 5 at home vs. Milwaukee and shut the Brewers out on one hit over six innings. He became the only left-handed pitcher in MLB's modern era to throw six or more shutout innings with at least six strikeouts while surrendering no more than one hit in his debut.

Last time out in St. Louis, Abbott blanked the Cards on five hits over 5.2 innings to become the first-ever Reds pitcher to have two consecutive scoreless starts of at least five innings to begin his career. His 11.2-inning scoreless streak to begin his career is the third-longest such streak by a Reds pitcher since 1893, when the mound was moved to its current distance, behind only Amir Garrett in 2017 (12 IP) and Wayne Simpson in 1970 (15 IP).

Now Abbott tries to become the first Reds pitcher to win each of his first three big-league starts Simpson did so in April 1970. Abbott is still only +5000 at Caesars to win NL Rookie of the Year. De La Cruz, called up on June 14, is a +700 second favorite. After a red-hot start, De La Cruz was 0-for-13 with five strikeouts in the three-game sweep of the Royals in Kansas City to open the week.

It's always a bit tougher for pitchers to win Rookie of the Year these days, as most rookies have strict inning limits from their teams. It's not clear what Abbott's might be. His career high in innings in the minors was 118 in 2022. He threw 54.0 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year before the call-up and is at 11.2 innings in the Show. 

At one point, the Reds were 7-15 and 8.5 games out of first in the NL Central. They're 27-20 since then, the division's best record in that span, and one game out of first place. They enter on a five-game winning streak. The Reds would get to .500 (35-35) for the first time since April 9 (4-4) with a win Friday and have won four straight road series for the first time since 2001.

DraftKings oddsmakers still list Cincinnati as a +800 longshot to win the division, behind even last-place St. Louis (+600) despite the free-falling Cardinals being seven games behind the Reds. To make the playoffs via any route, Cincy is +700 with No at -900. 

It's Cincinnati's first trip to Minute Maid Park since June 2016.  Houston starts its own rookie in JP France (2-1, 3.54 ERA). He's four years older than Abbott at age 28 and was a 14th-round pick in the 2018 draft out of Mississippi State. France started 2023 at Triple-A and was called up after five strong appearances. This will be his eighth big-league start. France has a 5.94 ERA at home in three starts and a 1.88 mark in four on the road.

Houston remains without AL MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez, who might not be back until late July with an oblique injury. Despite missing the past handful of games, Alvarez still ranks second in the bigs with 55 RBI, while ranking second in the AL in OPS (.978), second in slugging (.589) and tied for third in homers (17).

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