Patriots vs. Bills picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Thursday Night Football

Could the Patriots' defense get exposed twice in the span of a week on national television in prime time? And then a bunch more after that? I wouldn't bet against it!

It's a tough spot for The Hoodie here, facing a divisional opponent in the Bills who are suddenly in a fight for the AFC East division title, let alone the top seed. The Patriots have done a good job of taking care of the chum on their schedule – and there has been plenty of it – but they've come up small against top-tier teams, especially those with top tier quarterbacks. And brace yourself, Pats Nation and, well, all of American and the football-watching world, because we are about to see a ton of Bill Belichick vs. Great and pretty good and kinda-decent-I-guess-when-they-just-let-him-draw-plays-in-the dirt quarterbacks, because the NFL has played a cruel holiday season trick on us all.

You got the Pats last Thursday trying to stave off a turkey-induced slumber. We get them this Thursday night. Then we get them in primetime again in Week 14 against the Fightin' Kliff And Kylers on Monday night. And if that's not enough, they are slated for Sunday night football for the Josh McDaniels-Belichick revenge bowl the following week (gonna go out on a limb and say it gets flexed). Then Belichick gets Joe Burrow and the Bengals the week after that and then top-rated Tua and then finishes with a second dose of Josh Allen. Tell me how great this defense is after running that gauntlet.

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Spread: Bills -4

There's a massive quarterback imbalance here. A massive talent imbalance overall, even with all of Buffalo's injuries. Sean McDermott is one of the best coaches in the NFL and Leslie Frazier is a top defensive coordinator, so this isn't a coaching mismatch, either. Matt Patricia trying to scheme and call the Pats offense vs. Frazier, however, is a significant advantage for the Bills. And I am leaning way into that -- and Josh Allen vs. Mac Jones -- in seeing the Bills as at least two field goals better than the Patriots, even on the road. The last time they played -- in the playoffs a year ago -- the Bills were 30 points better than New England. And that was when Jones had a real offensive coordinator and looked like a better QB then than he has most of this season. All the Bills have to be is six points better here. The fact this already dropped a point makes me like it even more.

Total: Over 43.5

There seem to be some misconceptions about these two teams. The Bills defense, when remotely healthy, is truly elite. But it still isn't close to healthy and their last three games have produced 53, 54 and 63 points. And we think of the Patriots as a premier defense too, except that when they play a team that can actually excel at pushing the ball downfield they tend to come up pretty small. They did so on Thanksgiving in Minnesota (when I took the cheese). No foolin' me again. Allen is indeed beat up, but he is still slinging the ball around on game day and the Bills will score into the mid-20s themselves. They average 27 points per game, second only to the Chiefs. As for the Pats, well, yeah, they were in three rock fights recently (facing the inept offenses of the Jets – under Zach Wilson – twice in that span and getting to feast on Sam Ehlinger in the other), but here are their totals outside of that: 59 (Vikings), 47 (Bears), 53 (Browns), 29 (Lions, who failed to produce a single point), 51 (Packers), 63 (Ravens). This is Allen, who, bad elbow and all, will give them fits in ways that Wilson and Ehlinger could never imagine let alone achieve. The potential wind gusts I the forecast give me more worry than anything else about this going Over, but the Bills are built to overcome that stuff.

Bills Win First Quarter (+110)

The Bills offense has bogged down some in the second half of games. No doubt about it. The loss of former coordinator Brian Daboll might be most acutely felt in that regard, in halftime adjustments. But they will have a strong script for this game, they will test Belichick's defense early, and I see them winning the first quarter.

Same-Game Parlay (+1200)

• Devin Singletary Anytime TD
• Dawson Knox Anytime TD
• Josh Allen Over 43.5 Rushing Yards

Player Props

Stefan Diggs TD (+102)

Diggs shows up big in big games and the Patriots corners have some skid marks still on their back after getting run over on Thanksgiving. Wounded confidence isn't what you need when facing this Bills attack. He'll be looking to pull a Justin Jefferson on them and he just might.

Josh Allen Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-119)

Sore elbow or not, Allen still takes off and goes. He sat out the running game against Cleveland two weeks ago but has gone for 78, 84, 86 and 49 rushing yards in four of the last five games. Against this New England deep zone defense there will abundant open spaces to attack at the second and third level with his legs. He can't help himself.

Dawson Knox TD (+220)

New England has allowed eight scores to tight ends this season, the second-most in the NFL. The Pats had their hands full with T.J. Hockenson last week. Finding Knox would be a smart way for the Bills to try to curb their recent red zone woes. He caught two against the Pats in the playoffs last year.

Devin Singletary Over 67.5 Scrimmage Yards (-117)

This feels like Singletary's kind of game, particularly if the wind becomes a factor. He ran 16 times for 81 yards against New England in the playoffs, with 94 scrimmage yards. He had 78 scrimmage yards vs. New England in Buffalo's other win over them last season. The Bills have been embracing run game more lately.

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